In a commission-driven business, leadership tends to focus on one key indicator: production. This metric is objective, updated daily, displayed on dashboards, and directly impacts compensation, territory, and overall ranking. Employees naturally pay attention to it without needing reminders.
However, the past four years have provided compelling reasons to reconsider how we interpret this data, as demonstrated by the industry’s own metrics.
Cost per loan increased, yet the leaderboard remained unchanged
From 2021 to 2025, the cost to originate a loan rose from $8,664 to $11,094, a rise of approximately 28%, according to the MBA’s performance reports. During the same period, the loans closed per production employee per month declined from 2.5 in 2021 to 1.4 in 2022. On the residential side, the NAR’s 2026 Member Profile indicates that the average agent completed nine transaction sides in 2025, down from twelve in 2022, while the median hours worked remained constant at 35 per week.
When viewing this data together, it’s clear that while the leaderboard remained static, the workload increased significantly. A producer who maintained her performance during this stretch was actually experiencing a substantial, though hidden, increase in effort per transaction, which the leaderboard did not reflect.
The compensation data supports this observation. According to STRATMOR, average retail loan officer commissions stayed steady at 92 to 103 basis points, yet average annual income plummeted from over $170,000 in 2020 and 2021 to $91,000 in 2022. While the earnings rate for producers barely changed, the conditions required to achieve that income transformed drastically.
Why volume can increase even when capacity is strained
Thus, production is not just an imperfect reflection of individual performance; it is the metric with the longest lag in the system. The industry’s own organizations recognize this, with NAR reporting that about 15% of its members are newcomers each year and that fluctuations in membership typically trail broader economic changes.
The nature of a commission-based business exacerbates this lag. When a producer feels pressure, the immediate and valid response is to work harder. In salaried positions, this strain often manifests as performance drop-offs, whereas in commission roles, it frequently appears as increased volume—because volume is what the individual can control to alleviate immediate pressure. This is not a flaw in character but a product of effective incentives.
What to monitor beyond just pipeline totals
As a clinical social worker, I spend considerable time with individuals in sales roles. The following insights, while not clinical, advocate for monitoring operational signals that change before production does. Many of these indicators already exist in your systems.
Work pattern shape. Focus not just on total hours, which can be misleadingly high, but on their pattern. Look for signs like increased late-night work, the transition of weekend work from occasional to routine, and repeated cancellations of time off.
Pipeline composition rather than just volume. Observe if the same dollar amount is being generated from more units, rework, and late-condition resolutions, or whether there’s a reliance on a narrower range of referral partners than in the past. This indicates greater effort per dollar earned, an important metric to track per producer given rising cost-per-loan statistics.
Response latency and tone. Monitor changes such as slower response times, shorter and less engaged replies, or a producer who previously sought input from managers on complex files but no longer does so. Notice if there is a decrease in delegation or support team utilization.
Withdrawal from non-transactional job aspects. Be aware if a producer starts skipping team meetings, declining ride-alongs, or abandoning informal mentoring of newer team members. While transactional work remains consistent, discretionary tasks may decline silently.
Absence of recovery after peak performance. It’s typical for a record month to be followed by a period of normalcy. However, if a period of peak performance continues without a tapering-off phase month after month, this pattern merits attention.
Transform observations into retention and coaching strategies
Here are two practical considerations on how to use your observations effectively.
First, avoid starting discussions with performance metrics. Telling a producer that their volume is impressive or noting a decline can prompt defensive reactions. Instead, focus on specific observations, like acknowledging repeated trip cancellations or noting the absence of files you used to receive regularly.
Second, separate observations from the available resources. If support is Linked to compensation discussions, it may deter some producers from utilizing those resources. This highlights the importance of who has control over compensation.
The cost of failing to recognize these signals can be substantial. Approximately one in five producing loan officers changed firms in 2025—a year characterized by greater stability. The leaderboard provides insights into who closed deals, but it doesn’t always reveal the hidden costs, which can remain unnoticed by management for some time.
Martha Fernandez, LCSW, is a licensed clinical social worker and co-founder of CEREVITY.
This column does not necessarily represent the views of HousingWire’s editorial staff and ownership. To contact the editor overseeing this piece: [emailprotected].
