Boston Real Estate Investors Association

Massachusetts Real Estate Market Update for February 2024

It’s a new year which means it’s time to write a new book. And there were some pretty incredible stats in the first chapter of that new book. But then there were some cautionary figures as well. It’s all here in the January 2024 Massachusetts Real Estate Market Update. 

If you are looking to hear about the Massachusetts Real Estate Market data for Single Family Homes, Condos and Multi-Family properties… Then you are in the right place.

January and February are all so important because this is the setup to the Spring market which is when we see the peak of our sales levels… As well as pricing. Not sure which analogy to go on… Tennis or Football… Eh, let’s go football. It’s like a game of field position. Sellers want that ball as close to the 50 yard line as possible. Buyers want that ball pinned by the goal line. So where are we on the field??? Well, let’s find out. 

Real quick, my name is Jeff Chubb and I am a recovering Investment banker, turned real estate agent that has sold more than a 1,000 homes. If you are planning on buying or selling a home now or in the future, then it would be a pleasure to speak with you. 

Let’s start with Single Families

In January of 2024, we saw 2,088 Single Family homes sell for an average sales price of $739 thousand dollars. 

Look at that. You can barely see the yellow dot that shows the 2023 dataset. And that is because there was such a small difference between the sales levels of January 2024 and January 2023. 

The 2,088 Single Families that sold in January was only 2.7% off of last year’s sales numbers when we saw 2,146 homes closed. 

The first chapter of sales numbers are suggesting that this year may be a lot like last year! And to recap what happened in 2023 is that sales levels were down… Way down while prices for Single Family homes in Massachusetts were up 4.8%.

Like we said pretty much all last year… Sales and prices are not two factors that work in tandem. So we know the diminished home sales that we saw last year will not affect home values… Home values are tied to the inventory levels. 

We ended 2023 with a 6.4% year over year appreciation rate. Well, looks like we are starting 2024 with a 10.9% increase year over year in pricing. 

January’s showing puts us pretty darn close to the 13.7% that we saw back in October of 2023. And it blows the 1.7% year over year appreciation rate that we saw back in January of 2023 out of the water. 

I said it in my 2024 Market Predictions. For the market crasher praying folks… I don’t see how prices will go down this year… Especially if we were to get some interest rate relief. 

Let’s continue to dig into this data and look at the yearly sales comparison. 

As we know, our sales levels were a little short of last year. 2.7% short. This month’s sales numbers also put us between January of 2011 and January of 2012. That’s essentially more of the same as what we began to expect in 2023. 

Let’s call 2023… The year of the Resilient Market. It weathered 8% interest rates like a boss and came out looking good with nearly a 5% appreciation rate. 

I don’t think resiliency will necessarily be the story of 2024. Maybe it will be more of the same. But the nearly 11% appreciation rate to start the month out is a sign that this year’s market will be more about pricing growth than resiliency. And you can thank that pricing growth to inflation. 

UGGH. So close. 2.7% close. I know it’s going to happen this year. But as of now that is 30 consecutive months of year over year sales declines. I know at some point in 2024 that we are going to buck this trend. 

That’s pretty astounding. Nearly 3 years of year over year sales declines. 

But as we know. Sales levels do not factor into pricing. And here is our graph proving that!

30 consecutive months of sales declines while we have had 43 consecutive months of price increases. 

Calling my shot. IF this trend is to be kicked this year… Then it would be in October of 2024. Which means that I am thinking we will see 51 consecutive months of price increases until we MAY finally see a year over year price decline. 

Why do you ask? Because the October 2023 sales price data was an outlier and was off the charts. 

Still no surge in inventory. It’s actually slightly below where it was at the end of January in 2023. 

The 2,825 units is 3.9% less than the 2,940 Single Family homes that were on the market in January of 2023. 

Kind of interesting because towards the end of the year, the trend for inventory was up. Again, prices are all about inventory levels. So THIS is the main factor that we always need to keep our eye on. But you can always view Quincy Homes For Sale by clicking here. 

And inventory levels are still 6.4 times lower than they were when compared to the sales levels back in 2011. Inventory is incredibly low. It’s painfully low if you are a home buyer. It’s even more painfully low if you are one of those people that are praying that there is going to be a market crash. 

This year over year inventory graph really gives you a better picture of where we are when compared to the last three years. 

As of now, we are hovering slightly below the inventory levels of 2023 and above what we saw in 2021. 

Again, why does this matter? Because we can go back and see what the yearly home price appreciation levels were back then. It’s our best indicator as to where we are headed in the future. 

But as of today, we have 247 fewer homes on the market at the same time in 2023 and 884 more houses on the market then we did back in 2022. 

Quick recap… So sales in the Single Family market were off by 2.7% while inventory was off by 3.9% when compared to last year’s numbers. 

The first month of the year is making a pretty good case for market conditions similar to 2023!