It’s a new year which means it’s time to write a new book. And there were some pretty incredible stats in the first chapter of that new book. But then there were some cautionary figures as well. It’s all here in the January 2024 Massachusetts Real Estate Market Update.
If you are looking to hear about the Massachusetts Real Estate Market data for Single Family Homes, Condos and Multi-Family properties… Then you are in the right place.
January and February are all so important because this is the setup to the Spring market which is when we see the peak of our sales levels… As well as pricing. Not sure which analogy to go on… Tennis or Football… Eh, let’s go football. It’s like a game of field position. Sellers want that ball as close to the 50 yard line as possible. Buyers want that ball pinned by the goal line. So where are we on the field??? Well, let’s find out.
Real quick, my name is Jeff Chubb and I am a recovering Investment banker, turned real estate agent that has sold more than a 1,000 homes. If you are planning on buying or selling a home now or in the future, then it would be a pleasure to speak with you.
Let’s start with Single Families
In January of 2024, we saw 2,088 Single Family homes sell for an average sales price of $739 thousand dollars.
Look at that. You can barely see the yellow dot that shows the 2023 dataset. And that is because there was such a small difference between the sales levels of January 2024 and January 2023.
The 2,088 Single Families that sold in January was only 2.7% off of last year’s sales numbers when we saw 2,146 homes closed.
The first chapter of sales numbers are suggesting that this year may be a lot like last year! And to recap what happened in 2023 is that sales levels were down… Way down while prices for Single Family homes in Massachusetts were up 4.8%.
Like we said pretty much all last year… Sales and prices are not two factors that work in tandem. So we know the diminished home sales that we saw last year will not affect home values… Home values are tied to the inventory levels.
We ended 2023 with a 6.4% year over year appreciation rate. Well, looks like we are starting 2024 with a 10.9% increase year over year in pricing.
January’s showing puts us pretty darn close to the 13.7% that we saw back in October of 2023. And it blows the 1.7% year over year appreciation rate that we saw back in January of 2023 out of the water.
I said it in my 2024 Market Predictions. For the market crasher praying folks… I don’t see how prices will go down this year… Especially if we were to get some interest rate relief.
Let’s continue to dig into this data and look at the yearly sales comparison.
As we know, our sales levels were a little short of last year. 2.7% short. This month’s sales numbers also put us between January of 2011 and January of 2012. That’s essentially more of the same as what we began to expect in 2023.
Let’s call 2023… The year of the Resilient Market. It weathered 8% interest rates like a boss and came out looking good with nearly a 5% appreciation rate.
I don’t think resiliency will necessarily be the story of 2024. Maybe it will be more of the same. But the nearly 11% appreciation rate to start the month out is a sign that this year’s market will be more about pricing growth than resiliency. And you can thank that pricing growth to inflation.
UGGH. So close. 2.7% close. I know it’s going to happen this year. But as of now that is 30 consecutive months of year over year sales declines. I know at some point in 2024 that we are going to buck this trend.
That’s pretty astounding. Nearly 3 years of year over year sales declines.
But as we know. Sales levels do not factor into pricing. And here is our graph proving that!
30 consecutive months of sales declines while we have had 43 consecutive months of price increases.
Calling my shot. IF this trend is to be kicked this year… Then it would be in October of 2024. Which means that I am thinking we will see 51 consecutive months of price increases until we MAY finally see a year over year price decline.
Why do you ask? Because the October 2023 sales price data was an outlier and was off the charts.
Still no surge in inventory. It’s actually slightly below where it was at the end of January in 2023.
The 2,825 units is 3.9% less than the 2,940 Single Family homes that were on the market in January of 2023.
Kind of interesting because towards the end of the year, the trend for inventory was up. Again, prices are all about inventory levels. So THIS is the main factor that we always need to keep our eye on. But you can always view Quincy Homes For Sale by clicking here.
And inventory levels are still 6.4 times lower than they were when compared to the sales levels back in 2011. Inventory is incredibly low. It’s painfully low if you are a home buyer. It’s even more painfully low if you are one of those people that are praying that there is going to be a market crash.
This year over year inventory graph really gives you a better picture of where we are when compared to the last three years.
As of now, we are hovering slightly below the inventory levels of 2023 and above what we saw in 2021.
Again, why does this matter? Because we can go back and see what the yearly home price appreciation levels were back then. It’s our best indicator as to where we are headed in the future.
But as of today, we have 247 fewer homes on the market at the same time in 2023 and 884 more houses on the market then we did back in 2022.
Quick recap… So sales in the Single Family market were off by 2.7% while inventory was off by 3.9% when compared to last year’s numbers.
The first month of the year is making a pretty good case for market conditions similar to 2023!
And what does nearly 11% of year over year price growth look like?!? It makes it look like we are just hanging out there on an island all by ourselves.
But take a look at the pricing numbers for 2021 and 2022. In January of 2022 we had a 10% increase in pricing Year over Year. So this 10.85% isn’t so crazy after all.
Will the yearly pricing trend stick in February with a home price decrease? We will soon find out!
We have the condo market and the Multi-Family market up next…But first, any chance you can do me a huge favor as it helps play with the youtube algorithm? Can you hit that like button? It just makes a huge difference to me as well as my channel.
For the month of January, we saw 797 condos close in Massachusetts for an average sales price of $715k thousand dollars.
Let’s start with the sales data…
Phew. And this is where the data didn’t look so good… 757 condos sold was a 24% decrease compared to January of 2023 when 1,048 condos sold.
This was a big surprise. Yes, sales were down towards the end of 2023, but it wasn’t anything like this. I will say that the sales declines have been growing since October. In October 2023, it was a 5% year over year decline. In November it was a 7% year over year decline then 14.7% in December and now the 24%.
Year over year it was not pretty. But the January sales levels were on par with the levels of January in 2011 and 2012.
This is definitely something to keep our eye on.
We have been talking about the inventory levels ticking up for the last couple months. Well that continues as we start 2024.
The inventory levels of 1,736 condos on the market at the end of January is a 17.7% increase in inventory levels year over year. It’s also a 28.5% increase over the all time January low in January 2022.
While this is great news for condo buyers… It’s probably not enough to throw a party for. But for those looking for South Boston Homes For Sale then this is a great place to start!
Comparing our inventory levels to the 2011 when we last had similar sales levels, then that would mean inventory levels are 4.2 times higher than they are today.
Inventory levels are ticking up, but we are still at pretty historical lows.
And here is the inventory gap with week over week data. It looks a little different then the year over year because this data is always pulled on mondays.
The condo inventory levels are really going toe to toe with last year’s levels.
Keep in mind that condo prices were up 7.7% last year. So that’s great news for Condo property owners in Massachusetts.
As a year over year comparison… Sales were down 24%, but the amount of new listings that came on the market was up! This year we had 1,579 new listings hit the market in January. This is compared to the 1,419 that hit the market in January of 2023. An 11.3% increase in new listing activity is exactly what buyers want to hear!
The solid pricing gains that sellers have enjoyed in the condo market continues!
The average sales price of $715k was 5.9% higher than the average sales price in January of 2023 when it was $675 thousand.
Last January we had a 9.3% year over year increase, but those year over year numbers would begin to factor in Covid Data… And the condo market did not perform well during Covid.
Starting the year out at 6% isn’t bad! It’s a pull back from the December year over year increase of 14.5% though!
We are coming off of a pretty red hot Fall market for the Condo market. This 6 percent is very respectable.
And now for my very quick shameless plug. If you are thinking about buying or selling a home, then reach out to me today as I would be honored to help guide you through the process.
Now onto the Multi-Family market…
The Multi-Family market had a GREAT month. There is no segment more happy to put 2023 in the rearview mirror than the Multi-family market.
In January of 2024 we saw 348 Multi-Family units sell for an average sales price of $707k.
YUP. Sales levels in the Multi-family market still sucked. But it’s in line with where we were last year. Depressed sales levels are the expectation nowadays.
The 348 units sold was a 4.3% decrease in the year over year sales levels for January.
Is it great that it was less than last year? No. But again. This is the expectation now.
Aside from last year, we would need to go back to the sales levels of 2014 to really be in this same range that we are today.
Again, I am neither surprised nor disappointed in these sales levels.
Now let’s take a look at the inventory levels.
Sales continue to be low. And so does Inventory… Inventory actually dipped year over year to 578 units!
The January 2024 vs January 2023 inventory levels are down by 6.8%.
The amount of new multi-families coming to the market was up… A lot in January though. This year they were up by 26.5% year over year as there were 573 newly listed Multi-Family properties in January of 2024 compared to the 453 in January of 2023.
When you compare our inventory levels today to those of January of 2015, then there are 2.7 times fewer Multi-Family properties on the market.
It was a great month for multi-family pricing growth. The pricing trend for 2023 was all over the place, so the year over year pricing growth is going to be interesting all year long.
The nearly 11% year over year appreciation level is a big print. But to put it all into perspective, we have now seen year over year pricing growth for the last 5 months and 7 out of the last 8 months.
It’s a favorable trend for multi-family property owners as they head into 2024.
Want to talk about your personal real estate needs?
Again, it’s Jeff Chubb. Whether you are looking to buy or sell a home in the next 9 or 90 days, then I would love to chat with you and find out about your real estate goals.
And if you know of anyone that is thinking about buying or selling a house, then I truly appreciate you passing along my information.
You can visit YouTubeRealEstateAgent.com or find all of my information in the description below!
Until next time.
#Massachusetts #Real #Estate #Market #Update #February
Jeffrey Chubb
2024-02-07 09:32:49