We all know that Boston (and Massachusetts) rule… The rivalry between us and New York shouldn’t even be called a rivalry. It’s just common sense. We are better. End of story.
However, there is an issue going on here in Massachusetts. More people are moving out of our fair state than moving in! In 2023, for every 77 people moving into the state of Massachusetts, 100 were moving out!
This moving ratio of .77 ranks Massachusetts 42nd out of 51 regions nationwide. Painfully, between April 2020 and July 2022 there were about 111,000 people that left the state. This was the state’s highest outmigration in 30 years.
While the state is seeing outmigration, the city of Boston is actually doing better… A lot better! For every 129 people moving into Boston, there are 100 people moving out. This makes Boston one of the few cities in Massachusetts with net positive migration in 2023.
But there are some issues. I was reading an article, Why Young People Continue to Flee Big Cities even as Pandemic has Faded. The article mentions that for decades young Americans formed the lifeblood of the nation’s largest cities, but they are now leaving beg metro areas in droves and powering growth in small towns and rural areas.
The article sites that since the Pandemic, cities with more than 1 million residents have lost adults aged 24 to 44 while towns with smaller populations have gained young people. This was able to be done thanks to the remote work shift that allowed people to move to lower cost smaller metro areas and rural communities.
What is interesting is that young Americans’ preferences for large cities starting losing some steam in 2017. Covid was just a kick in the rear push. I personally think it was a kick to the companies as it forced them to adapt to virtual employment. Zoom was around before Covid, but now it’s a staple. I personally think the amount of virtual work will be pulled back, but know there will always be a place for it.
And that is a good thing for smaller towns around the country. Yes, I think there will be towns in Massachusetts that benefit, but I think it’s really going to be towns like Roanoke Virginia. Where did I get Roanoke from?
Check out this article “The Surprising U.S. Cities Young Homebuyers are flocking to – and where They’re Fleeing from“. The article mentions that Cameron Austin was living in the heart of Washington, D.C. in a one bedroom apartment that cost over $2,000 a month and that buying the same sized unit would set her back $400,000 in 2020. I won’t lie, I read that and thought about the amazing deal she was getting if she lived here in Massachusetts and thinking how that $400,000 budget is nearly impossible in Boston. Because check out the prices on these Boston Homes For Sale!
The article mentions that her company went remote during the pandemic and she moved back to her hometown of Roanoke, VA. She thought it was a temporary move… But it wasn’t. Within a year she realized that the biggest benefit of remote work is the ability to pick where she wanted to live without sacrificing the high-quality job.
And in 2021 she bought a 1,700 square foot home in Roanoke with three bedrooms and 1.5 baths for $290,000. You heard that right. $290,000. Check out the prices of houses in Roanoke Homes For Sale. Sell here in Boston and buy a mini-mansion in Roanoke and still bank a boat load of money.
That is why people are moving out of our fair state. The housing costs have gotten out of control. The question becomes will we find a balance? Will an exodus of enough people leaving create a gap in the supply vs. demand and hinder housing prices?
And just so we are clear. I am not necessarily saying housing prices go down. But imagine a scenario of a decade where small towns appreciate by 10% compared to the larger areas by 5%. That 5% difference for a long period of time could be the difference.
Make believe numbers here. Let’s say the rural area is $250,000 and the larger city area is $500,000. This is a very simplistic analysis, but in Year 1 the gap is $250,000. In Year 10 that has decreased to $166,000. Am I saying this is going to happen? No. Could it happen. Yes. Are there things that I could never account for like a world-wide pandemic… Double yes.
But it is some relatively good food for thought.